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28.05.2014
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The further you get the harder the going
The CATI- center of the "Leancor" Analytical center conducted a telephone survey of adult inhabitants of Yaroslavl. Within our research project we asked respondents the following question: "Imagine that the elections of the mayor of Yaroslavl will take place   next Sunday. For which of the flowing candidates would you vote? ". Answers are presented in charts (a telephone survey took place on April 28-30, 2014, sample made 500 people, a statistical error of a sample of ±3,5%).

It is clear that a question of the elections of the mayor, to put it mildly, is premature, E.Urlashov's fault in attempt of a bribe isn't proved yet. On the other hand, many participants of the political process in the Yaroslavl region already began preliminary preparation for elections and more and more exaggerate a question of elections. It will happen sooner or later. Therefore we also tried to ask an appropriate question to respondents to find out the real attitude of inhabitants of Yaroslavl towards these or those local politicians. We independently chose candidates who in our opinion can take part in elections of the mayor. This list, namely:

Untitled-1.png Untitled-2.png Untitled-3.png Untitled-4.png Untitled-5.png Untitled-6.png
E. Urlashov

Mayor of Yaroslavl
A.Nechaev

First Deputy
Mayor of Yaroslavl
B. Nemtsov 

Yaroslavl
regional
Deput
RPR-PARNAS
A.Vorobyev 

Yaroslavl
regional
CPRF Regional
Commetee
secretary
U.Boyko  

director of
regional
development
department
of Yaroslavl
region
Government
I.Osipov 

Yaroslavl
regional
Duma Deputy
"UR"

we broke into 3 groups as we don’t understand clearly weather all potential participants of elections will be able to participate in elections at the same time. As a result we designed three various lists and we received the following result:

List 1:

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E.Urlashov
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A.Nechaev
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B.Nemtsov
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A.Vorobiev
Untitled-8.png
Other candidate
Untitled-7.png
Hard to answer

List 2:

Untitled-1.png
A.Nechaev
Untitled-2.png
I.Osipov
Untitled-6.png
B.Nemtsov
Untitled-3.png
A.Vorobiev
Untitled-4.png
Other candidate
Untitled-5.png
Hard to answer

List 3:

Untitled-1.png
Yu.Boyko
Untitled-2.png
I.Osipov
Untitled-3.png
B.Nemtsov
Untitled-4.png
A.Vorobyev
Untitled-5.png
Other candidate
Untitled-6.png
Hard to answer

In our opinion the data as follows:

1. If E.Urlashov took part in elections of the mayor again, he would win all these elections again. If not in the first round, in the second for sure.

2 . Potential candidates from the party of the power are weak so far and don't get public support. The strongest of them is A. Nechayev, but for the acting mayor, the electoral rating measured of 7-12%, is "a death sentence" in fact.

3 . Oppositional candidates are also weak (Nemtsov and Vorobyov). If opposition sets a goal to win, it is necessary to unite around one rather strong and known figure and to go on elections as a united front. As it was in Yaroslavl in 2012, and in Novosibirsk in 2014.

4. The vast majority of voters of Yaroslavl today don't see any significant and serious figure which could borrow and adequately represent residents of Yaroslavl as the mayor … Deficiency of persons. We have nothing to say here considering that people which weren't included in the lists of potential candidates got most of all voices (people themselves called these people – Volonchunas, Yastrebov, Lisitsyn, Lastochkin, Greshnevikov). But we think that none of these politicians run an elections of the mayor of Yaroslavl for the objective and subjective reasons.

5. It turns out that the electoral field is almost free on elections of the mayor if they take place in rather close temporary prospect and if there is no E.Urlashov (in case of an accusatory judgment, he won’t be there), elections won't take place), anyone can win. It isn't excluded that Mr. A, Artemyev felt this precisely and decided to remind of himself to voters, having hung out congratulatory posters by May 9 around the city.

It is interesting, isn’t it? As they say, the further you get the harder the going.

Evgeny Golubev

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