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20.01.2014
Politic and economy
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Ukraine is on fire. And the ruble grows scanty meanwhile...
The most important events last week took place in Ukraine. And, it seems like we don’t care about them. On the contrary, the central TV channels overtook such psychosis that you think that Kiev is crushed by revolutionary hooligans, the city is almost wiped out, marauders, the murderers, drunken rabble are everywhere.
Ukraine is on fire. And the ruble grows scanty meanwhile...

The people who have visited Kiev, tell the opposite– yes, barricades are on Nezalezhnosti Square and at Grushevskogo St., in all the rest the city works in a usual mode, all establishments (except two ministries and the Kiev city administration), cafe, restaurants, etc. work as usual. Another escalation of the conflict has brought up Yanukovych practically to an extreme - he has already suggested one of leaders of opposition A.Yatsenyuk to become a prime minister. Nobody knows what will be the end of all this, but certain lessons already can be taken out. Seems like they have already been made by the Russian President Administration, otherwise they wouldn't force such a psychosis on the central television. The only thing is they are not for use as always. So:

укр1.250.jpg1. The discontent with the President and his team ripened long ago and poured out in a spontaneous protest under the influence of not the unique decision of the authorities, but the whole complex of solutions of the last time. The occasion was bright (unwillingness to sign agreements with the European Union), but it was not defining all degree of discontent. The main thing is an unwillingness to consider public opinion and an attempt to use a brute force against the citizens. It revolted everybody. And now, seemingly, the existing power has no way out, so it is necessary to share the power and it is possible, not partially, but completely.

2. The power was late with decisions which could have extinguished somehow the heat that says that they don't feel the current inquiries of people, their moods and inquiries at all.

3. Public opinion is being formed s in such a way that enemies, plots and State Department are around. As a result an emetic reflex towards all Russian are borne among Ukrainians, and ordinary Russians have memories of the Soviet propaganda promotion to which if the task was set by the highest party and state bosses, it will be carried out it with redoubled zeal. The result will be very sad – bigger mistrust of the Ukrainian citizens to Russia, and bigger mistrust of Russians to own management.

If not to go into details of the Ukrainian events, all aforesaid directly or indirectly belongs to Russia as well. This is the value of events in Ukraine to Russia.

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It is clear that all this TV psychosis is used generally for internal Russian application so that the people know such a scary word "revolution". However frank forcing of a situation, as usual, gives rise to suspicions, and then the confidence of the opposite – the authorities broadcast only the weakness and fear of repetition of the Ukrainian scenario in Russia. Therefore it is necessary to frighten, frighten, frighten, as the fear is the strongest "sobering" feeling. But the engineers of human souls forget that it is impossible to live with fear constantly, sometime and somewhere all the same will break through. And it will be much unexpected as there is any revolution. Protest movement can't be suppressed by scary stories on a TV box, something bigger is necessary for this purpose: the authorities should behave decently, make decisions responsible and clear to people, hold fair elections, and have independent court and mass media. That’s all… such a small thing. And if the economy is as it should be also, everything will be fine.

By the way, indirect interest of the highest Russian management with the Ukrainian events was confirmed by the agenda of Security Council of the Russian Federation that took place on January, 24 by the initiative of the President V. Putin. "During the meeting the current social and economic problems were considered. Participants of a meeting also exchanged opinions on a situation in Ukraine. Besides, the situation in the Syrian settlement was discussed taking into account results of the negotiations round which has taken place in Montreux within the Geneva-2 conference, and also the questions connected with completion of preparation for the coming nearer Olympic Games in Sochi" were discussed. This is the official sounded agenda of Security Council of the Russian Federation on a website www.kremlin.ru. The actual, serious interests of the President V. Putin are Ukraine, the Olympic Games, and Syria.

Meanwhile on January 25 Platon Lebedev was released from the Arkhangelsk colony. The Supreme Court of Russia commuted a penalty to Platon Lebedev, the former head of IFI "Menatep" to the already served sentence. It is clear that after M. Khodorkovsky's release there was no sense to hold locked up P. Lebedeva, his next associate. It is one more mercy gesture of the power on the eve of the Olympic Games, as well as Ella Pamfilova's appointment to a position of the Commissioner for Human Rights in the Russian Federation which took place on January 23. This post does not mean anything for real policy, though allowing arguing long on human rights in Russia.

Essence of economic events of last week concentrated round a dollar rate. On January 25 it reached a level of 34, 25 rub for dollar. For January 1st, 2014 the course was significantly less – 32, 65 rub. Total: +1, 60 rubles in 25 days of new 2014. Not bad to happen right before the Olympic Games. Looks like the manifestation of planned devaluation in bloodless Russian economy. It is obvious and serious plus for the Russian exporters, first of all oil industry workers, gas workers and metallurgists. Devaluation was already reflected in increase of stock quotations of Russian metallurgical companies. This is the first serious increase of actions of metallurgists for the last one and a half years. Experts claim that it is catching-up devaluation. The economist Yakov Mirkin speaks:" There is a fundamental gap between a real and nominal rate of ruble. The ruble is overestimated dramatically, and it is in interests of the Russian economy for the ruble to become cheaper smoothly, without sharp jumps ". There was "a strong ruble" as a certain sign of the greatness, any superiority for too long in Russia. And as a result of it the ruble was overestimated, and its course decreased in flashes, as a result of shocks, crises as it was in 1998 and 2008. So now only down, main thing is that it would be not so quickly and not so sharply. There are expectations that before the Olympic Games the ruble will brake a little, probably, it will even rise in price a little. However as the main tendency, of course, lowering dynamics waits for it.

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In the Yaroslavl region as it was always recently, there are peace and harmony and God's good fortune. And only the oppositional politician B. Nemtsov, a voyazher between Moscow, Kiev and Yaroslavl draws attention of politically active public from time to time. On January 20 Boris Nemtsov was called in the Committee of Inquiry for evidence according to the statement of the deputy of United Russia party Mikhail Krupin, who accuses Nemtsov of illegal collecting and distribution of information which is a tax secret. Nemtsov explained that all data on debts of deputies are got from open sources – the official site of Federal Tax Service. According to the Tax code 102nd article debts aren't tax secret, individual numbers of taxpayers also were in open access. As a result Boris Nemtsov wrote the application in Committee of Inquiry with the requirement to deal with tax debts of 16 deputies of a regional Duma, the members of United Russia fraction. The intentions of United Russia party members are unclear. They set up themselves once again.

The visit of Olga Golodets, the Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of the Russian Federation was one more information occasion to which residents of Yaroslavl paid attention last week. Nobody except officials of regional administration might pay attention to, if not Olga Golodets's one sacramental statement which was heard like a bolt from the blue. Here it is literally: "The health system in the Yaroslavl region develops dynamically, new technologies" take root here.” She said such phrase after the visit to the regional oncological hospital and private clinic "Mother and the child", specializing in carrying out procedures of extra corporal fertilization (EKO). Two strange questions are raised here:

1. How did it happen that the Deputy Prime Minister arrived to open private clinic to Yaroslavl? Is it an absolutely accidental promotion for private clinic that the most high-ranking Russian officials provide?

2. What is the secret known by O. Golodets about a real condition of health care of the Yaroslavl region to declare its dynamic development that not known by ordinary Yaroslavl patients of hospitals and policlinics? Perhaps we happen to be in places where everything does not develop dynamically? Perhaps there is somewhere and something in the Yaroslavl region hidden from us by regional officials responsible for all regional health care for two years? There is a strong wish to receive the share of this piece of happiness.

Deputies of municipality and representatives of the City Hall of Yaroslavl continued to fight for who will drive municipal property owing to cancellation of the notorious 140th resolution. Fight is unpromising for one simple reason – officials and deputies fight for spheres of influence, instead of for overall performance of the municipal enterprises. As rusty water from a water supply system flew before in Yaroslavl, and it continues to flow now. It was at Volonchunas (the former mayor, nowadays the deputy) times and at Urlashov (the mayor in prison) times, and at municipal deputies, and at the first deputy of the mayor Nechayev. Nothing changes for the better so the discussion has no chances to become fruitful and successful for inhabitants of Yaroslavl.

There is no surprise that the authorities provoke unhealthy interest to some things about which it is better to keep simply silent. It concerns also events in Ukraine, and information on debts on taxes of Yaroslavl United Russia party members, and the statement on dynamic development of health care in the Yaroslavl region. Here the Governor S. Yastrebov is silent and he is right, talkative people as the former Governor of Chelyabinsk region M. Yurevich, are simply dismissed. Everything seems all right, all according to the plan …

At the end of December, 2013 our call center conducted the next survey of the population of the Yaroslavl region and measured level of electoral support of various political parties in the Yaroslavl region. The question of the questionnaire sounded as follows: "Imagine that elections of deputies of the State Duma of the Russian Federation will take place the coming Sunday. For what party would you vote? ". Answers are provided in percentage of the interrogated active voters who are precisely ready to come to elections (a telephone survey of the population of the Yaroslavl region was conducted on December 22-24, 2013, sample made 1200 people).

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The "United Russia" rating is strangely enough great and almost unshakable. And it is quite comparable with all-Russian (data of FOM (Public Opinion Fund) for Russia as a whole for the corresponding date also show an electoral rating of ER of 38%). However it looks also iridescent in Yaroslavl (27, 4%). We will remind also about such tendency shown for the last 2 years, as social approved answers. They give the real amendment to the party in power ratings on 7-10 items (naturally towards fall) which are really redistributed in favor of protest parties. Thus for the last year we see a certain reformatting of political space – two parties Liberal Democratic Party of Russia and "Fair Russia" aren't perceived any more by many voters as the protest parties. This glade is occupied more and more by three other parties – "A civil platform", "Green" and Republican Party of Russia - Parnassus. It is felt especially in such large cities as Yaroslavl. As they say, this information is enough for a reasonable person. And if the present authorities want somehow to act more successfully at the following parliamentary elections, they should consider these tendencies and try to bring "their own” new party to elections. And it is not the fact that "The all-Russian popular front" will be able to help them. Otherwise everything will be as in Ukraine.

Evgeny Golubev

In the publication the works of the artist Vasya Lozhkin, nowadays the resident of Yaroslavl, were used.

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