The Gaidar forum opened on January 15 and has proceeded for four days. The most interesting, of course, was in the first day. At the forum there was almost whole economic block of the Government – both the Minister of Economic Development A. Ulyukaev, and the Minister of Finance A.Siluanov, and even the Prime Minister D. Medvedev. All of them calmed public and, seemingly, the calmed themselves – a pier, there are problems in economy, but all of them are can be solved. Everything won't be worse in 2014 than in 2013, and, probably, even slightly better. The Minister of Economic Development Alexey Ulyukaev on the Gaidar forum declared the change of economic model of the world economy as a whole. According to him, you shouldn't call the going events a crisis, just growth rates of gross domestic product will be lower now, both in developing, and in the developed countries. The Ministry of Finance through the lips of its head lulled by information that in 2013 the budget is executed, the income is exceeded, the budget deficit is less than planned - 0,5% of gross domestic product at planned of 0,8%. Generally, everything isn't so terrible. It is clear that on the status federal officials have to assure everyone of stability of a financial system and predictability of rates of economic growth. However they were somehow reluctantly trusted, because even simple decrease in growth rates of economy in fact leads us to lag from the advanced countries with which we should catch up. And we are only building a lag in fact.
Various economic sources give different forecasts for 2014. At first the World Bank acted as the optimist. In the January report it plans that this year gross domestic product of the Russian Federation will add 2,7%. It is the half of percent higher than the December forecast of the bank. The main reason is the higher dynamics of world economy is expected. And the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Alexey Ulyukaev, on the contrary, displaced this level down. By its assessment, in the next three years economic growth in Russia won't exceed 2,5%, considering that other world will add more than three percent on the average. Ulyukaev considers that Russia was included in an anti phase with world development since last year. But this is not a crisis, but a transition from one model of economic development to another.
What will happen actually, will become clear not earlier than April,2014. Passions for the Olympic Games will cool down and people will return to daily work, results of the first quarter of 2014 will be clear at the same time.
Nevertheless, the ruble exchange rate in the first two decades of January, 2014 behaved rather aggressively. The ruble exchange rate to dollar made on 1.01.14 32,65 rub, and on 18.01.14 already 33,43 rub (+ 0,78 rub). What is it? Planned devaluation? It isn't excluded. And, perhaps, so far this is the only thing useful for our economy in which deficiency of money both at the enterprises, and at the population was outlined obviously.
V. Putin's personnel appointments were curious. All this was about the governor's case. At first two "positive" decisions were made on January 14 - Nikita Belykh is appointed as the temporally executing Governor of the Kirov region and Vyacheslav Gayzer is appointed as the temporally executing Governor of the Komi Republic. Alexander Berdnikov is appointed the temporally executing Governor of the Altai Republic joined on January 18 them. In translation from official into Russian it means that the Kremlin coordinated these all three candidates on promotion as elective Governors. The Kremlin lets us know that it stakes on these candidates and believes in their election already in the near future.
And here in Chelyabinsk region with temporally executing Governor M. Yurevich something "didn't grow together". Formally he stood well with the Kremlin, but on January 15 he independently resigned and the President granted his request, having appointed the temporally executing head of the region Boris Dubrovsky (the general director of Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works). Any official reasons of resignation of M. Yurevich didn't follow.
From outside Mikhail Yurevich's resignation and Boris Dubrovsky's appointment as the temporally executing Governor of Chelyabinsk region are the steps of the Kremlin difficult to explain. Among governors of "a Putin appeal" Yurevich was the rare politician who paid much attention to electoral part of the work. He often appeared on a TV, he met with pleasure with the population, his PR managers weren't tired to remind inhabitants of the region of the one who is in power. Before New Year tens billboards with Yurevich's portrait were established in Chelyabinsk. The governor looked tightened, bright, charismatic. He wished fellow countrymen a Happy New Year and Merry Christmas.
According to data of the Chelyabinsk sociology Yurevich's electoral rating made 69% at the end of 2013. The rating of the next opponent (the conditional opponent, of course, - the mayor of Chelyabinsk Sergey Davydov) didn't exceed 10%. And the rating of Boris Dubrovsky whom as a result was appointed the temporally executing Governor appeared within a statistic error at all.
The key role in M. Yurevich's resignation, certainly played his conflict with security officers, judicial , a number of businessmen and an environment of the former governor Pyotr Sumin. Opposition with the chairman of regional court Fedor Vyatkin, FSB and other security officers strongly weakened positions of the governor Yurevich. But one large enterprise – Ural Carriage-Building Plant appeared to be the biggest interested in resignation of Yurevich. The present temporally executing Governor Dubrovsky worked from 2009 to 2011 there. Dubrovsky's connection with presidential plenipotentiary envoy in Ural federal district Igor Kholmanskikh is traced through UVZ. Apparently, it is that case when Yurevich's relation with elite groups was more important than support of the population. Neither traditionally "United Russia" good results on elections in Chelyabinsk region, nor lack of crisis situations, nor rather quiet (for the metallurgical region) situation in economy rescued the governor.
As a result the Kremlin can face problems when carrying out campaign for elections of the governor of Chelyabinsk region. The governor who had popularity among the population, dismissed without any formal explanation of the reasons. It is absolutely unclear how now to explain to 70% of residents of Chelyabinsk that they need another governor. It reminds somehow the Yaroslavl scenarios of "solutions of a personnel question" but here it is without arrests and prisons (in more detail about causes and effects of the Chelyabinsk personnel question it is possible to read on http://mlik.ru/news/kriminalnye-novosti/yurevich-ushel-blagodarya-silovikam-kotorye-donesli-do-putina-spravku-o portal).
Region the Yaroslavl province is represented simply a tranquility oasis against so rough events in Chelyabinsk. And it isn't important that "Avtodiesel's" workers didn't leave holidays, and it isn't important that for 2013 year the number of individual entrepreneurs in Yaroslavl was reduced by 16,6% in comparison with the past 2012, and it isn't important that debts of the enterprises of the region for gas continue to grow (over 2 billion 946 million rubles the debt for gas of the enterprises of the Yaroslavl region for January 1 makes. More than 1 billion 616 million rubles are the “JSC TGC-2” debts). It is important that everything is quiet, measurably, predictable… as at a cemetery.
The most important events of the last week were:
Well and in a makeweight United Russia party member who according to the statement of the deputy member of the United Russia party Krupin, demand to excite against B. Nemtsov a case on Art. 183 of UK "Disclosure of Confidential Data" (till 7 years) surprised us again. B. Nemtsov, having used open sources, published the sums of debt of 16 deputies of United Russia party members on taxes in the budget before New Year. They should’ve been silent and t pay taxes, but they were engaged in a direct PR campaign of Nemtsov. It is possible to tell that they turn out to be very successful at it, even it is better than Nemtsov from time to time. As they say, honor and praise to them.
As for searches at G. Rodin, the cleaning of team of E.Urlashov obviously proceeds. However, it is unclear why do they do it now. And all this reminds production performance, with advance prepared scenarios and television cameras on duty in places of searches. It is strange, unclear, and shallow.
On January 17 in the Government of the region passed public hearings according to the "Strategy of Development of Tourism in the Yaroslavl Region till 2025" project. Representatives of authorities, business, the enterprises and the tourist's industry organizations, deputies of the Yaroslavl regional Duma, specialists in tourism of municipalities, members of regional Coordination council took part in action for tourism. According to the authorities "Strategy" sets the following purposes:
The priority direction of tourism will be cultural and historical on the basis of which will develop also industrial, automobile, water, youth, rural, business, improving, educational travel.
Having read attentively the "Strategy", I came to a conclusion that it is made competently, the experts knowing the business. The developer (and respectively the recipient of budget money) became FGBOU VPO "The Russian state university of tourism and service", registered by the address: 141221, Moscow region, Pushkin district, settlement of Cherkizovo, Glavnaya St. 99. The only problem is that there are no people who are able to realize this "Strategy" in the Government of the Yaroslavl region. There is no motor which would be able to start this ambitious program for realization. Respectively, it is necessary for a show. And in reality everything will occur as always – something will be done by private traders (tour operators, hotels, restaurants, probably, municipals), and state agencies will report for their work and no comprehensive program of advance of the region will exist.
Two very unlike characters pleased last week. They are Anatoly Lisitsyn, senator and the former Governor, and the artist-primitive Vasya Lozhkin (in the world – Alexey Kudelin).
On January 13, on the Day of a Russian press solemn rewarding of winners of the competition "Public recognition" who became the Yaroslavl bloggers and journalists took place in Yaroslavl at Saint George hotel. Competition was founded by Senator Anatoly Ivanovych Lisitsyn and urged to note talented and productive information persons. As a whole action took place rather positively, all participants remained in good mood, and as a whole it received positive responses. Lisitsyn who in a time of political trouble of Yaroslavl appeared hardly the most democratic, politically correct and courteous politician, noting an essential role of the independent press in our life was especially happy.
Same week A.Lisitsyn visited a pre-trial detention center No. 1 of Yaroslavl where visited the old acquaintance A. Lastochkin and then after that was on reception at the head of SKR on the Yaroslavl region O. Lipatov during which he declared: "I know Yury Lastochkin very well, I perceive him as person rather correct and decent. I try to accelerate owing to the opportunities process of interaction of a consequence and legal profession, first of all – on change of a measure of restraint". And next day A.Lisitsyn again visited the Yaroslavl pre-trial detention center No. 1 where he brought five TVs with antennas as gift young prisoners. Such a remarkable activity of the former Governor A.Lisitsyn who obviously covered with his powerful figure all politicians of the region, including the Governor S. Yastrebov. Such positive vital spirit is usually inherent to people wishing to reach something. And he is 66 years old.
Such positive vital spirit of A.Lisitsyn’s is possible to compare, perhaps, only with two residents of Yaroslavl (former and already real) who can be considered as local cultural symbols – Artemy Troitsky who on Thursday made the program in Dublin pub and as always struck all with the unusual comments and statements, and Vasya Lozhkin, the artist-primitive who decided to live and create now in Yaroslavl, having moved here from Solnechnogorsk. If I were the management of the city I would give him a workshop in one of municipal rooms at once. As it was done for Oskar winner of the animator A. Petrov. In the same place it would be possible to organize gallery of his works and to drive there tourists. Perhaps, this person can do the much more with his creativity for the city and the region, than officials from culture and tourism all together. We have not so many places which are really interesting, original, bright and attractible. The workshop and Vasya Lozhkin's gallery could become such place.
It is really necessary to recognize as the real hero of week senator Anatoly Lisitsyn. Our call center at the end of December, 2013 conducted the next survey of the population of the Yaroslavl region and measured trust level to various politicians in the Yaroslavl region. The question of the questionnaire sounded as follows: "Which politicians and public figures of the Yaroslavl region do you trust most of all?"
Answers are provided further percentage of respondents (the telephone survey of the population of the Yaroslavl region was conducted on December 22-24, 2013, sample made 1200 people). We will note that the highest level of trust (the rating of trust paid off as the sum of answers of respondents on alternatives I "trust" and "I rather trust") among voters, who are precisely ready to come to elections (so-called "active voters"), across the Yaroslavl region as a whole - at the Governor S. Yastrebov (37,5%), and here in Yaroslavl it - at the former Governor, nowadays senator, A.I.Lisitsyn (38,2%). High ratings of such different politicians as B. Nemtsov (21,2%) and E.Urlashov (25,5%), Vorobyov (26,8%), Greshnevikov (27,1%) attract attention in Yaroslavl. We can here that the fullest palette of political paints (from communists to "the burned democrats") is presented in Yaroslavl. Maybe, Yaroslavl is call the most politize city of Russia not for nothing.
Evgeny Golubev
Drawings and high-sensual works of the artist Vasya Lozhkin, nowadays the resident of Yaroslavl are used in the publication.
